The 2024 World Chess Championship will take place in Singapore on November 25. It will feature the defending champ, Ding Liren, and the challenger, Gukesh Dommaraju! This post contains analysis of the Ding vs Gukesh match-up.
First, we will look at some basic information about each player. Then we will look at the database of their games in Opening Master and further characterise their play styles, finally giving a prediction for the match score. Let’s dive in!
By Michael Omori
Update Nov 27, 2024 - Day 3 (FIDE.COM)
Ding Liren
(Photo of Ding Liren: FIDE [1]
Classical rating: 2728 with a peak of 2816 in Nov. 2018
Style: According to Magnus Carlsen, Ding is seen as a strategic player who sets up solid formations. [5]
Seconds: Ding’s seconds during the 2023 cycle included Richard Rapport and Jakhongir Vakhidov. [4] This collaboration may continue for this tournament too.
Overview
Ding Liren is the current FIDE World Chess Classical Champion. He won the match in tiebreaks against Ian Nepomniachtchi in April 2023 [2] The score was tied 7-7. The rapid tiebreaks had 3 draws in a row, and finally, Ding broke through with a win as black in the fourth tiebreak game to capture the title. The games will be briefly looked at in a later section.
He is one of the few players to have broken 2800 FIDE Classical rating and had a 100-game unbeaten streak from August 2017 to November 2018 in classical tournaments (Any rating mentioned henceforth refers to only FIDE classical). The ability to hit 2800 is rare; only 14 players have ever crossed this threshold [3]
Gukesh Dommaraju
(Photo of Gukesh Dommaraju: FIDE [6]
Rating: 2783 and a peak of 2794 in October 2024.
Seconds: Gukesh said that his second was GM Grzegorz Gajewski for the Candidates tournament, and it is likely this will continue for the world championship. He is a strong opening theoretician, having helped Viswanathan Anand during the 2014 World Chess Championship [7]
Gukesh qualified for the world championship by winning the Candidates tournament with a score of 9/14.
Style: Dynamic and fearless play, backed up by his precise and speedy calculation.
Overview
Since April 2023, Gukesh has played 172 games, increasing his rating from 2730 to 2783. Given his trajectory, it’s likely he will reach 2800 soon. He is only 18 years old and would be the youngest potential winner of the World Chess Championship since Garry Kasparov took the throne in 1985 when he was 22.
World Championship Format
Singapore (Photo by Michael Omori 2023)
The match is sponsored by Google and will be held in Singapore this year. [8]
The format is best of 14 games, 120 minutes per side for the first 40 moves, sudden death 30 minutes, with a 30 second increment starting from move 41. Speed chess tiebreaks would follow from a tied score. One unique thing is that players are not allowed to agree to a draw before black’s 40th move, which was a factor in last year’s games being often decisive.
2023 World Chess Championship Openings by Ding
Every variation is unique, but we can see some overall commonalities between the initial moves chosen in last year’s tournament. This, in turn, may be partially predictive of this year’s match, though, of course, we expect to see some novelties. Below is a very brief description of the openings Ding played. The accuracy is according to the chess.com Stockfish analysis, which calculates the centipawn loss on each move and performs a weighted averaging and normalization to output a score between 0% and 100%. For the full games, check out: 2023 FIDE World Chess Championship Games
Game 1: Ding (black) played the Morphy Defense against the Ruy Lopez; 96% accuracy; Opening Moves: 1. e4 e5 2. Nf3 Nc6 3. Bb5 a6; Result: ½-½
Game 2: Ding (white) played the Queen’s Gambit; 84% accuracy; Opening Moves: 1. d4 Nf6 2. c4 e6 3. Nf3 d5; Result: 0-1; Here Ian took first blood
Game 3: Ding (black) led with a Nimzo, which Ian declined; 98% accuracy; Opening Moves: 1. d4 nf6 2. c4 e6 3. Nc3 d5; Result: ½-½
Game 4: Ding (white) played the Four Knights English with e3; 95% accuracy; Opening Moves: 1. c4 Nf6 2. Nc3 e5 3. Nf3 Nc6 4. e3; Result: 1-0; Managing to come back!
Game 5: Ding (black) played the Morphy Defense against the Ruy Lopez; 87.5% accuracy; Result: 1-0
Game 6: Ding (white) played the London and managed to win; 94% accuracy; Opening Moves: 1. d4 nf6 2. Nf3 d5 3. Bf4 c5 4. e3; Result: 1-0
Game 7: Ding (black) played the French Defense; 88.1% accuracy; Opening Moves: 1. e4 e6 2. e4 d5 3. Nd2 c5; Result: 1-0
Game 8: Ding (white) played the Nimzo with e3; 86.4% accuracy; 1. d4 nf6 2. c4 e6 3. Nc3 Bb4 4. e3; Result: ½-½
Game 9: Ding (black) played the Berlin against the Ruy; 95.6% accuracy; Opening Moves: 1. e4 e5 2. Nf3 Nc6 3. Bb5 Nf6; Result: ½-½
Game 10: Ding (white) played the English four knights again, but with e4 on move 4; 99.4% accuracy; Opening Moves: 1. c4 nf6 2. Nc3 e5 3. Nf3 Nc6 4. e4; ½-½
Game 11: Ding (black) played the Morphy against the Ruy; 99.5% accuracy; Opening Moves: 1. e4 e5 2. Nf3 Nc6 3. Bb5 a6; Result: ½-½
Game 12: Ding (white) played the Colle, 86% accuracy; Opening Moves: 1. d4 Nf6 2. Nf3 d5 3. e3; result: 1-0
Game 13: Ding (black) played the Morphy against the Ruy; 95.7% accuracy; Opening Moves: 1. e4 e5 2. Nf3 Nc6 3. Bb5 a6; result: ½-½
Game 14: Ding (white) played the Nimzo with e3 again; 96.4% accuracy; Opening Moves: 1. e4 Nf6 2. c4 e6 3. Nc3 Bb4 4. e3; result: ½-½
The tiebreaks saw three draws. [9] The first game was a very solid 1. d4 nf6 2. Nf3 d5 3. c4. The second game went back to the Morphy Defense against the Ruy. In the third game, Ding surprised everyone with the King’s Indian Attack. The fourth game was the conclusion, with Ding winning the final tiebreak in another Morphy Defense against the Ruy.
On average, Ding played with 93% accuracy; his lowest accuracy game was 84%, and his best was 99.5%, with a standard deviation of 5%. This tells us at his beat, he is unbeatable, but at his worst, he makes some clear mistakes. While, on average, he plays quite well. There is some correlation between accuracy and the sharpness of a position, with more tactical games tending to decrease the accuracy. As a result, accuracy may not always precisely describe how well a player is playing. For example, in quieter games, it is easier to have high accuracy if there are just a bunch of quick trades into an equal position.
A couple of patterns emerge; one is that Ding always responded to e4 with e5, and he always responded to d4 with nf6, followed by e6. While white, he played 1. d4 six times, c4 twice, and Nf3 once. We will see that in 2024, Ding has been practicing 1. e4. Though his results haven’t been stellar this past year, it will make prepping against him more challenging, given his wider arsenal.
Gukesh Candidates Victory
Gukesh scored 9 out of 14 points against a field of 7 GMs, 6 above 2700, and lost only one game against Alireza Firouzja as black in a London after he sacked a piece for three pawns and due to time pressure, losing control in a tricky endgame. [10] We will look into an overview of the openings he played in the Win Rate Stats section, and just give an overview of his accuracy.
Gukesh played with an average accuracy of 95%, min of 85.9%, max of 99.3%, and standard deviation of 3.9%. His courage really showed in the 13th-round game against Alireza, where the position was equal after the move Gukesh played. Though he had only 16 minutes, to his opponent’s 30 minutes, in a very sharp game, he could’ve taken a 3-move repetition against his opponent, known for his very good speed chess and calculation; Gukesh instead played for a win, something very few people would probably have done in his situation, and was indeed able to win.
Head-head Match-up
Even at his peak, Ding played about 2% lower on average accuracy than Gukesh and also had slightly more variance in his play. The lowest accuracy for Gukesh at the Candidates is slightly higher at 85.9% than Ding’s 84%, though one game doesn’t say that much.
Looking at their classical matchup, Ding drew once as White and won two games as black [11] Mentally, Gukesh needs to overcome the fact that he hasn’t beaten Ding in a classical game yet.
Next, we take a look at one of the games they played. Ding showcased his creativity, finding a brilliant maneuver, which Gukesh missed.
In this position, Ding played Nc5! This forced Gukesh to take with the d pawn resulting in a very open position for the two bishops, which Ding successfully converted into victory.
In their second encounter at the 2024 Tata Steel Masters, Gukesh led with the “quiet” Giuoco Pianissimo. It quickly turned quite rambunctious, with opposite side castling, ending in another victory for Ding. Finally, in their most recent battle, at the Sinquefield Cup, a quick 3-move repetition draw ensued out of the Italian game.
If we compare their overall skill against various top opponents, Gukesh comes out on top in terms of performance. However, given their history, Ding has the upper hand on Gukesh. To analyze this further, we should look at when they played each of those games and what openings they played. It is unlikely they would play the exact variation in those games because the other team would likely be preparing against those lines.
In April 2023, when Ding was arguably near his peak, his rating was 2788. His rating has steadily dropped to 2728 after playing 49 games (having cited some mental challenges and lack of motivation as one factor). Life can be stressful, and we hope the players and our readers take care of themselves physically and mentally.
Moving on, many top players consider Gukesh the favorite to win, judging based on his recent performance. [12], [13]. Ding had one win out of 42 games against super GMs this year, and it was black against Gukesh in a very sharp Giuoco Pianissimo. Ding played with an average centipawn loss of 12, while Gukesh had a much higher centipawn loss of 35 that game. It is unlikely to see such types of games in the World Championship however, where stakes are higher, and Ding will probably go for something more solid as black, looking to secure a draw.
2024 Opening Repertoire
The openings they play will likely be a mix of what is suggested by their seconds, novel lines that they have not played before, lines they would be more comfortable playing, and lines they think the other side might not be prepared for or uncomfortable playing. For all the analysis, we only look at their 2024 games against 2700-level opposition. This is because their playstyle will change against weaker opponents, and since both players are 2700, we want to see how they play at this level.
White Openings
First, let’s just take a look at the very first move the players like to play as white.
|
First White Opening Move by Ding |
Classical Games Played 2024 |
|
d4 |
8 |
|
c4 |
7 |
|
e4 |
4 |
|
Nf3 |
2 |
|
First White Opening Move by Gukesh |
Classical Games Played 2024 |
|
d4 |
15 |
|
e4 |
13 |
- Ding played d4 eight times, c4 seven times, e4 four times, and nf3 two times.
- Gukesh, on the other hand, did not play the English at all, only playing d4 15 times and e4 13 times. Given this trend, we expect Gukesh to only lead with d4 and e4 but vary it up significantly in the choice of variation.
Black Openings
Now, for each major white first move, let’s look at the frequency of the responses by the two players.
|
First White Opening Move |
Ding’s Response as Black |
Classical Games Played 2024 |
|
Pe4 |
Pe5 |
11 |
|
Pe4 |
Pc6 |
2 |
|
Pd4 |
Nf6 |
6 |
|
Nf3 |
Pd5 |
2 |
|
First White Opening Move Played by 2700 |
Gukesh’s Response as Black |
Classical Games Played 2024 |
|
Pe4 |
Pe5 |
11 |
|
Pe4 |
Pc5 |
1 |
|
Pd4 |
Nf6 |
6 |
|
Pd4 |
Pd5 |
5 |
|
Pc4 |
Pe5 |
2 |
|
Nf3 |
Pd5 |
1 |
- Ding responded to e4 with e5 a total of 11 times. He played Nf6 against d4 6 times, c6 against e4 twice and d5 against Nf3 twice. In this championship, we expect Ding to only play e5 against Gukesh as he is likely looking for more solid play as black. If he really needs a win, he might play the Caro-Kann to imbalance the game and catch Gukesh off balance, but given Gukesh’s inclination for dynamic play, this is not likely.
- Gukesh also responded mostly with e5 against e4, 11 times, and only once with c5, the Sicillian. Against d4, he responded about 50/50 with Nf6 six times and d5 five times. Against c4, he played e5 twice, and against Nf3, he played d5 once.
Win Rate Stats
This year, Ding often drew as white, suggesting he is a solid player who did not take many risks. In fact, 81% of his games were drawn. As black, he scored one win as black against Gukesh, then went on to lose almost half his games and draw the other half.
Gukesh, on the other hand, has much higher winning percentages as both white and black. But as black, he loses at a rate of more than twice as he would when he plays white.
If we calculate the average score for each player. Ding scores 0.4 as white per game and 0.3 as black. Gukesh scores 0.6 and 0.5, respectively. Given that they each will play 7 games max in the classical portion for each color, multiplying these values by the number of games, Ding is expected to get around 3 points as white and 2 points as black. Gukesh is expected to score around 4 as white and a little under 4 as black. Only 7.5 points is needed to clinch the title, and this is probably what players will be aiming for if they have 7 points. Our prediction is 7.5-5.5 in favor of Gukesh, but there’s a good chance that Ding will turn the tables and show the power of a world champion.
Match-up Summary
Rating: Gukesh is 55 rating points higher than Ding
Head-head wins: Ding won 2.5 - 0.5 in classical against Gukesh with one rapid chess tie
Overall experience: Ding has 14 years of extra experience and a world championship under his belt. Gukesh is younger and has nothing to lose. If he wins, he will be the youngest ever World Chess Champion.
Openings: 1. e4 e5 will probably be the most common first moves, with the Italian Game trending these days. Following that we may see Ding bring out his signature English toolset, and Gukesh bring out the Queen’s Gambit. Ding will likely counter the Queen’s Gambit with Nf6, while Gukesh might mix it up with both Nf6 and d5 in response.
Prediction: 7.5-5.5 for Gukesh
Conclusion
The match will be closely contested, featuring Ding’s strategic depth against Gukesh’s fearless dynamism. We wish both players the best of luck and hope for a smooth yet exciting event. Tune in for the first game on November 25, 2024!
Code and Data
I downloaded the database of games and ran an analysis using my Python code here to obtain the data for the Opening Repertoire and Win Rate Stats sections: https://github.com/AstroBoy1/world-chess-championship-24
To download the data: https://www.openingmaster.com/
References
[1] https://ratings.fide.com/profile/8603677
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship_2023
[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparison_of_top_chess_players_throughout_history
[5] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LOUPHO1mDkY&t=4s&ab_channel=TakeTakeTake
[6] https://ratings.fide.com/profile/46616543
[7] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grzegorz_Gajewski
[8] https://worldchampionship.fide.com/
[9] https://www.chess.com/events/2023-fide-world-chess-championship/games
[10] https://www.chess.com/events/2024-fide-candidates-chess-tournament
[11]https://archive.ph/20240912143813/https://www.chessgames.com/perl/chess.pl?pid=158070&pid2=52629
[12] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VVBH7nWzfkI&ab_channel=SaintLouisChessClub
[13] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zamOIwdVaZc&ab_channel=ChessBaseIndia
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